Lord Berkeley mentioned that Oakervee journal suffered "from a bias to just accept proof from HS2 instead of that of others."
His dissenting report says that the entire value of £ 107 billion may be decreased by £ 50 billion by enhancing the so-called North Energy Plant (NPH) and Midlands Join (MC) rail hyperlinks.
"If the ministers want to assist enhance the rail community and providers within the Midlands and the North, this may be achieved by integrating the HS2 Section 2B traces within the NPH space into the prevailing community and by enhancing the Community Rail (NR) traces within the NPH and MC zones by quadrupling the tracks till they have been earlier than the cuts of the Beeching period The intention needs to be to present these zones the identical stage of providers commuting solely within the south east whereas enhancing present traces from London to the north. This feature would save round £ 50 billion in comparison with the price of HS2. "
He additionally advocates the removing of the Euston terminus in London, ending in Outdated Oak Frequent, saving £ eight billion.
Maybe his most revealing criticism is that the entire challenge was over-specified: "HS2 was designed round a specification that’s unnecessarily excessive and dear for the providers required and for a rustic a lot smaller geographically than France, Germany or Italy. HS2 Ltd designed the system at 360/400 km / h, greater than another excessive velocity line in Europe or Japan, and at 18 trains per hour in every course, when the corporate itself admits that no different high-speed line is ready to run greater than 12 to 14. "
As soon as acknowledged, the whole financial document collapses, he argues.
"HS2 Ltd then seems to base its income and different profit forecasts on this extreme specification to realize advantages at greater than twice the fee, in accordance with the 2017 financial document, suggesting that the system presents worth for cash . Nonetheless, even earlier than making an allowance for the a lot greater prices of the scheme, the profit / value ratio within the case of 2017 is completely false, since it’s on extra trains than another excessive velocity line can function, on greater speeds and on trains. run all day with high-fare paying passengers that another high-speed line can function. So my greatest guess is that the HS2 challenge has a BCR of lower than 1, maybe as little as zero.6 and subsequently ranks as poor worth for cash when utilizing the Inexperienced Guide of the Treasury.
Tony Berkeley is a Labor Peer and an authorized civil engineer. As Tony Gueterbock, he was director of public affairs for Eurotunnel from 1981 till the top of the development of the Channel Tunnel in 1994 after which was director of the European Rail Freight Affiliation.
He was appointed vice-chair of the committee, chaired by Douglas Oakervee, tasked by secretary of transportation, Grant Shapps, to provide a report on how and whether or not to proceed the HS2 challenge. The committee was dissolved on October 31 earlier than the top of the drafting, reveals Lord Berkeley. The members of the skilled group have been knowledgeable of the ultimate model however weren’t allowed to make or counsel modifications.
Though the official Oakervee report has not (but) been launched, leaks have revealed that it advisable persevering with with HS2 as deliberate, regardless of the publicly declared projected prices having doubled from £ 55 billion in 2015 to over £ 100 million at the moment.
Tony Berkeley's 71-page dissenting report is at the moment out there on-line right here [link opens in new tab].